NewsMacro & flows
Argentina gov't confidence at 1.95, below the 2.5 seen before past re-elections
1.95 points: Argentina's confidence index rose 0.9% in October, still below the 2.5+ levels seen before past re-elections.
Di Tella's government confidence index rose 0.9% in October to 1.95/5, down 20.7% since end-2025; at month 34 only Néstor Kirchner (2.70) scored higher.
Market read: past incumbents won near 2.5+; those who lost sat at ~2 or below, a warning for the 2027 election premium.
Watch: 12 months to the vote; the index is most predictive close to election day.
Why it matters
Argentina's election risk premium depends on policy continuity in 2027. At ~2.0, the index sits in the zone where past incumbents lost, a risk factor for bonds and local stocks.
Source: Infobae
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