Track record
Every thesis is published with its entry, target, deadline, and invalidation level, reviewed every Friday in its log, and scored here when it closes. How it is calculated. Below them, every call of the Morning Brief with the probability I gave it and what happened. How calls are scored.
- Target hit
- 0
- Failed
- 0
- In progress
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Avg. return (closed)
- —
Monthly report
No thesis has closed yet. The monthly report starts with the first close.
Closed theses
There are no closed theses yet.
Open theses
There are no open theses right now.
Morning Brief calls
Each Morning Brief can make one call: an asset ends a UTC day above or below a level, with the probability I give it. It is written before the brief goes out, cannot be changed after that, and is scored with the last price saved that day. How calls are scored.
- Calls
- 1
- Scored
- 0
- Hits
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Brier score
- —
| Brief | Call | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 8, 2026 | Bitcoin below $75,000 at the end of Nov 12, 2026 (UTC) | 60% | Pending |