Argentina on the brink of a technical recession

The EMAE (Monthly Economic Activity Estimator) fell 1.7% year-on-year in August, with a year-to-date growth of only 1.2%. To avoid two consecutive quarters of decline, the economy would need to grow by 8.5% in September—a feat analysts consider virtually impossible.

A technical recession in Argentina puts downward pressure on local assets: Merval stocks, sovereign bonds, and the exchange rate may experience increased volatility until clear signs of recovery emerge.