Two hacks in a week, and the market is pricing more fear than damage
Binance's $6.3B loss is now tied to Lazarus, and Mercado Bitcoin lost $46M yesterday. The market is down 2% and Fear & Greed is at 26, but ETF outflows of ~$400M are a fraction of last week's inflows. What I'm watching today: whether Binance's reserves hold steady. If withdrawals don't accelerate, fear is running ahead of the real damage.
Markets
Crypto, last 24 hours
- Bitcoin
- $76,401
- −0.6%
- Ethereum
- $2,248
- −0.3%
- Solana
- $91.01
- −1.2%
- XRP
- $1.26
- +0.5%
- BNB
- $685.52
- −1.5%
- ETH/BTC
- 0.0294
- +0.3%
- Crypto market cap
- $2.69T
- −0.2%
- Bitcoin dominance
- 57.0%
Flows & liquidity
- Bitcoin ETFs, net flow
- −$398.6M
- Mon, Nov 2 · Tue, Nov 3 still reporting
- Ether ETFs, net flow
- −$139.7M
- Mon, Nov 2 · Tue, Nov 3 still reporting
- Stablecoin supply
- $296B
- −$5.6B
- 7-day change
Derivatives & sentiment
- BTC funding, annualized
- 7.1%
- +2.4 pp
- 24h average
- BTC implied vol (DVOL)
- 38.7
- −1.0
- Fear & Greed
- 34
- +8
- Fear
US macro, last close
- S&P 500
- 7,569
- +0.4%
- Tue, Nov 3
- Nasdaq 100
- 28,180
- +0.7%
- Tue, Nov 3
- US 10Y yield
- 4.95%
- +6 bps
- Tue, Nov 3
- Dollar index (DXY)
- 101.87
- +0.25%
- ECB rates · Tue, Nov 3
Captured at 01:05 AR on Wednesday, November 4, 2026: crypto over the previous 24 hours, US markets at their last close. Sources: CoinPaprika, Farside Investors, DefiLlama, Deribit, alternative.me, Cboe, ECB via Frankfurter.
Today's agenda
- 09:00 AR (07:00 ET)Circle (CRCL) quarterly results, before the openConsensus EPS $0.40
- 10:15 AR (08:15 ET)ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Oct)Consensus 73K
- 11:45 AR (09:45 ET)Services PMI (Oct)Consensus 57,9
- 12:00 AR (10:00 ET)Non-Manufacturing PMI (ISM) (Oct)Consensus 55,1
Topic of the day
Today, the uncertainty comes to an end. The market has almost fully priced in a Democratic victory—a scenario that is far from favorable for crypto assets. However, with a Democratic-controlled House of Representatives, Trump will find it difficult to govern exactly as he pleases. I anticipate a medium-term decline, lasting until January 2027.
I will share a DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) strategy for Bitcoin futures to help navigate this highly probable downturn.
Yesterday's quick takes
- ZachXBT: French bank loses $133MOnchain investigator ZachXBT has identified a French bank as the alleged victim of a crypto theft exceeding $133 million. The bank, Crédit Mutuel Arkéa, has not confirmed its involvement. The total losses could be higher due to additional over-the-counter transactions.
- S. Korea Seeks Crypto Tax DelaySouth Korea's ruling party is seeking a delay in crypto taxation, with a possible two-year postponement under discussion. The current legal start date for taxation remains January 1, 2027. This development may impact crypto investors in South Korea.
- SEC: Unaffiliated Voters Not a Controlling GroupThe SEC's Division of Corporation Finance stated that unaffiliated token holders voting through a crypto network's governance system are generally not a controlling group. This clarification is part of the SEC's digital commodity framework, which aims to provide guidance on what constitutes a security. The staff's views are non-binding and do not have legal force or effect.
- Binance's SAFU: 7,500 BTC Moved7,500 BTC from Binance's Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) was moved to an intermediate address on October 31 and then to an unlabeled address on November 3. The fund's remaining 7,500 BTC is worth around $583 million. Binance has committed to replenishing the SAFU to $1 billion.
- Fed tightens bank lendingThe Federal Reserve's November 2 survey shows banks tightened loan approval standards for nonbank financial firms, which could limit investors' appetite for Bitcoin. The survey found 24% of banks tightened standards, while 2% eased them, resulting in a net tightening of 22%. This financing constraint could affect Bitcoin investors if liquidity needs rise and financing becomes harder to secure.
Educational and informational content only. I am not a licensed financial advisor and nothing here is investment advice. Do your own research before making any decision.