Analysis and Position Management in Bitcoin (BTC)

By Anthony Asuaje, Thursday, November 5, 2026. 1-minute read.

A medium-term decline is highly likely; however, today Bitcoin rose by nearly 4% to approximately 80,100. If it does not surpass 82,000 soon, it is very likely to pull back—perhaps to 79,000. I currently have an open short position in BTC, targeting 75,000, which I intend to hold for the next two months; however, if the price breaks above 82,600, I will close the position due to a change in market

Markets

Crypto, last 24 hours

Bitcoin: $80,498; +4.1%
Ethereum: $2,425; +6.3%
Solana: $96.34; +4.4%
XRP: $1.31; +3.1%
BNB: $714.90; +3.0%
ETH/BTC: 0.0301; +2.2%
Crypto market cap: $2.82T; +4.9%
Bitcoin dominance: 57.4%

Flows & liquidity

Bitcoin ETFs, net flow: −$115.6M; Tue, Nov 3 · Wed, Nov 4 still reporting
Ether ETFs, net flow: −$85.3M; Tue, Nov 3 · Wed, Nov 4 still reporting
Stablecoin supply: $295.1B; −$6.5B; 7-day change

Derivatives & sentiment

BTC funding, annualized: 3.7%; −3.3 pp; 24h average
BTC implied vol (DVOL): 38.1; ±0.0
Fear & Greed: 50; +16; Neutral

US macro, last close

S&P 500: 7,689; +1.6%; Wed, Nov 4
Nasdaq 100: 28,437; +0.9%; Wed, Nov 4
US 10Y yield: 4.89%; −6 bps; Wed, Nov 4
Dollar index (DXY): 101.25; −0.60%; ECB rates · Wed, Nov 4

Captured at 01:00 AR on Thursday, November 5, 2026: crypto over the previous 24 hours, US markets at their last close. Sources: CoinPaprika, Farside Investors, DefiLlama, Deribit, alternative.me, Cboe, ECB via Frankfurter.

Today's agenda

09:00 AR (07:00 ET)Bank of England rate decisionConsensus 4.00%
10:30 AR (08:30 ET)New unemployment benefit claimsConsensus 200K
10:50 AR (08:50 ET)Fed's Hammack speaks
11:10 AR (09:10 ET)Fed's Barkin speaks
14:00 AR (12:00 ET)Polygon hard fork discussion
17:45 AR (15:45 ET)Arbitrum DAO vote closes: [Constitutional] AIP: Stylus Activation Contract

Full weekly calendar

Topic of the day

Current situation: Bitcoin has risen by nearly 4% to $80,100.

Bearish scenario: If it fails to surpass $82,000 in the near term, it could pull back toward $79,000, with a bearish outlook for the medium term.

Strategy: A short position on BTC remains open, with a target of $75,000 over the next 2 months.

Risk management: The trade will be invalidated and closed if the price breaks above $82,600, as this would signal a change in market structure.

Yesterday's quick takes

Binance, Polymarket seek Polygon hard forkBinance and Polymarket proposed a Polygon network hard fork to recover approximately $6.8 million in stolen crypto. The hard fork would transfer 70.49 million POL tokens from attacker-controlled addresses to recovery wallets. This move aims to return the funds to their owners after separate security incidents involving the two platforms.
India warns of AI hackersIndia's cybersecurity agency warns of an AI-assisted hacking campaign targeting crypto exchanges and financial firms, stealing wallet keys and funds. The threat actor, named
Mercado Bitcoin: $46M hack, phased reopeningMercado Bitcoin will begin restoring customer account access on Monday after a hack resulted in over $46 million in stolen assets. Customers will initially be able to view their holdings, while withdrawals and trading remain suspended. The exchange has pledged to cover losses using company funds.

Educational and informational content only. I am not a licensed financial advisor and nothing here is investment advice. Do your own research before making any decision.